India’s tour of Australia 2011-12 Preview

Some general observations.
There won’t be so much sideways movement as there was in England and the Australian bowlers won;t be as disciplined as the English. So our batsmen would fare much better.Almost all Australian batsman are stroke makers. They would n’t grind India ruthlessly like Cook or Trott. They will give chances to get them out. So the bowlers may have a bit more success.

I am taking it on a per Test basis.

First Test , Melbourne
First Test of a tour for India . I have nothing more to say.They will get wallopped.

India win 5%, Draw 5%, Australia -90%

Second Test, Sydney
This is by far the best chance for India to register a win. The pitch is known to assist spinners in the past, although I am not sure if the curatorwill allow it to do so this time, given that spin is not one of the strengths of the current Australian team, either bowling it or facing it. If it spins a bit and Zaheer plays the Test, India might win the Test.
India win -50%, Draw 30%, Australia win 20%

Third Test, Perth

Last time India’s only win came in Perth. I think it would be a lot tougher this time. The pitch has reputation of being the fastest in the world and I wouldn’t be surprised if Australia field an all pace attack. Apart from Tendulkar, Dravid and Laxman everybody else in the current team struggles against short pitched balls.Also last time around India’s win was made possible by a session where the ball swung for the Indian bowlers. It was facilitated by a wind called “free mantle doctor”.
I am not sure if it would arrive this time and even if it does India don’t have Praveen Kumar or Irfan Pathan to take advantage. Our bowlers aren’t quick ebough to blast their batsman out.So Perth will go Australia’s way.

India win 5%, Drwaw 5 %, Australia win 90%

Fourth Test, Adelaide

This is the best batting pitch in Australia. In the 2003-04 tour India won here but that was after a collpase from Australia in the third innings . IN that match both teams made more than 500 in their first innings.A draw is the firm favorite here.
India win 10%, Draw 80%, Australia win 10%

So my prdeiction for the series 2-1 to Australia .

I have made the following assumptions.
1. Tendulkar gets THAT hundred in the first Test
2. Zaheer Khan plays all Tests

If either of these does not happen, make it 3-0 to Australia.



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